My predictions have been 100% on target so far. Let's see if I can continue the streak. I predict "Campaign" will be a box office flop, grossing about $10-15 million tops this weekend. Here's my reasoning: Young movie fans have little interest in politics, the Will Farell schtick is very old, worn out, and the trailers aren't funny. This might prove, audiences have seen enough of Will Farell.
I agree. Galifianakis' schtick is also getting old.
Noticed that they were very careful to be politically neutral here. Not sure if that's good or bad; then again, it probably doesn't matter.
if Galifianakis is in it, I'm not paying to see it
The movie is essentially a "Funny or Die" skit stretched out to feature length Most of Will Ferrell's movies were a hit... Ten years ago. Anchorman 2 might do a little bit of business when it comes out, but it's a movie that should have been made seven years ago.
Will Ferrell is old news, as is Steve Carrell, and Zack just plays the same role in everything he does. Go look at Zack's appearances on "Tim and Eric" from six years ago... same exact characters he's playing now.
I bet it does more than $15 million, maybe substantially more. The commercials look fairly funny (and they aren't making it for young movie fans). Men who don't want to see Meryl Streep will drag their women to see it.
And really, there's nothing else out this weekend that's funny.
(And Steve Carell is in the Meryl Streep thing - not in The Campaign).
20+
It would pull in 10+ if it was just Will Ferrell and Zach Galifianakis sitting in a room talking about a movie.
The Other Guys opened to 30+ just two years ago. Ferrell has lost nothing, Galifianakis hasn't been around long enough to get old, and my guess is Jason Sudekis will kill in a supporting role.
If you see this movie this weekend, rate it funny or die and report back.
I think that it will do close to twenty. Whether their acts are getting old or not is debatable, but I think both actors are still two of the most popular in the comedy genre and the previews that I've seen look funny, so I think that people will go to see this. However, I think it should be mentioned that The Bourne Legacy is coming out this weekend, also, so that could result in The Campaign losing a lot of its potential male audience.
http://www.deadline.com/2012/08/justin-theroux-to-hellm-swear-to-god-with-will-ferrell-and-steve-carell/
Box Office Mojo is predicting $23.6 million.
The movie will do well. It looks funny
The movie will either be number 2 or 3 at the Box office this weekend
LA Times likes it. Entertainment Weekly gave it an A-. It's currently at a solid 65% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Though it's early, Deadline Hollywood (which is usually pretty accurate), working from the early box office, is predicting $24-$26 million.
Looks like they're reporting estimates of 27.4 mil. Not bad.
Might go see it later today.
From the NY Times:
Kiss Babies, Dodge Scandal, Praise the Lord "The Campaign," starring Will Ferrell and Zach Galifianakis, is a fun-house fable about the absurdities of our democracy in this contentious election year.
http://movies.nytimes.com/2012/08/10/movies/the-campaign-starring-will-ferrell-and-zach-galifianakis.html?nl=movies&emc=mua2_20120810
Video: Interview With Jay Roach
http://video.nytimes.com/video/2012/08/09/multimedia/100000001712913/timescast-politics-politics-and-comedy.html?nl=movies&emc=mua2_20120810
And respectfully, Michael, your predictions have a long history of not being very accurate. Such as your prediction last December that Jack and Jill would have legs and Edgar would die in the 2nd week.
Actually, Jack and Jill made 33.7% of it's box office in its first weekend (J. Edgar only made 30.1%), and Jack and Jill then dropped 53% in its second weekend, more than J. Edgar did.
You also said that J. Edgar would be blown out of theaters fast, but in week 5 - in the busy Christmas season - it was still playing in 83% of the theaters it opened in. By weeks 7 and 8, it was still playing in almost double the theaters that Jack and Jill was...
One thing we can conclude, there's no reason for Farrell or Galifinakis to retire their respective screen personas now. Oh, joy.
Btw, tried to watch J. Edgar last night... yeesh, what an ugly looking movie. And what was with the makeup? It was hard to look at the old J. Edgar and not laugh.
Read it & weep. Both BOURNE and THE CAMPAIGN are doing better than expected.
http://forums.boxoffice.com/index.php?/topic/5047-weekend-810-1212-estimates-bourne-legacy-403m-campaign-274m-hope-springs-156m/
Translation: expect more lame unfunny Will Ferrell movies, more lame extensions of franchises,
more lame arrested development from Zach Galiafinakis (sp?).
I will rent HOPE SPRINGS, though. Streep and Jones are great actors....
In second place, The Campaign scored an estimated $27.44 million from 3,205 locations.
Similar Will Ferrell Summer comedies Anchorman ($28.4 million) and Step Brothers ($30.9 million), and more noticeably off from The Other Guys ($35.5 million) and
Talladega Nights ($47 million).
That being said, it's a fantastic opening for the box-office-challenged political satire genre: in fact, it's the highest debut ever for a movie centered around a political campaign.
The "B-" CinemaScore isn't encouraging for its long-term prospects. However, the upcoming release schedule is surprisingly devoid of any direct comedy competition, which should help the movie play well through at least the rest of August.- Box Office Mojo
Other movies in the "political satire" genre:
Dave (1993, $7 mil opening)
Head of State (Chris Rock) ( $13 opening, domestic $38 mil)
I guess NASCAR satire is better than political satire?
Well, as Will Ferrell movies go, I think THE CAMPAIGN is a good thing - it seems a lot more grown-up than some of his movies. Better that things like THE CAMPAIGN make money than THAT'S MY BOY.
Yeah, great pre-dick-sions once again MAS - geez, you suck man - try and get it right at least once in a while won't ya fella...
;-0
Maybe with positive reinforcement like this, within 5-10 years Will Ferrell might actually make movies as funny and relevant as... Ben Stiller...?
As far as political movies go, I'm looking forward to Ferrell's comedy version of 1984: A CHORUS LINE, where he's both the tortured W. Smith and the torturer O'Brien, as well as half the characters volunteering for a song-and-dance routine to be presented before Big Brother....
Thought it was funny.
Political comedies are a hard sell, especially overseas. Likely a big fall off next week.
Heard the new BOURNE film isn't very good.
