The sequel will do $500 million domestic.
This one, we're going to lose a lot of theaters before it catches on.
You just have to remember that these types of movie tend to do very well worldwide because they have a universal fee to them (Pirates, Star Wars, Harry Potter) and not a USA! USA! USA! story (like Battleship looks to be like). Plus, the more I see from it, it seems to all the humor and original style that makes for a blockbuster. So, yeah, I'm calling at least 150m domestic and 500m worldwide.
Yeah.... it even made it to Estonia. Think I'll go check it out.
Just viewed the clip. You are right Gary, that's going to make a ton of money. Took them years to finally do it, but it looks and feels great.
A Participant says:
A ten minute clip now on YouTube under Disney trailers.
I was part of a focus group for an early version of the film, and then i saw a more finished version about a month ago.
In a Star Wars movie, there are three completely different environments. John Carter starts on earth, in Monument Valley, and moves to Mars, where there are two major cities. Not really enough variety for modern SF... but if the first movie gets an audience interested in the Story World, then the sequel should rock.
I think John Carter jumps so far, it comes off as CG. We understand what the low gravity on Mars would mean, and why earth muscles should be strong enough to jump over cars and maybe school buses.
A Participant says:
$100 mill would still make it a big loser. Needs to do about 400-500 million worldwide to make money, perhaps more.
To make money from its theatrical release alone, yes. But it can earn a lot less than that at the box office and still make money after all revenue streams are calculated.
The greater the box office, the greater the ancillary markets.
I think the formula is, you break even if you make two thirds of your production budget in domestic box office.
So in order to break even, JC needs to pull in $167 million domestic. And that's assuming the $250 million production budget is accurate. And I'm not entirely sure it is. But regardless, I think it will pass $167 million at the domestic box office.
I didn't catch that it was 3d. I think that is a mistake. Kills any chance of me seeing it until it comes out on Netflix. I can wait 10 years.
Calvin, you can watch John Carter in 2D, 3D, or IMAX 3D. You have the choice. I'm opting for IMAX 3D myself. I hate regular 3D, but IMAX 3D is awesome! Better glasses, bigger screen, brighter image, sharper details. It's worth the markup.
[Deleted by Amazon Studios on April 10, 2012 06:01 PM PDT]
What do I expect from "Battleship" and "John Carter"? Good production values wasted for poorly written stories, characters like puppets, no emotions, no meaning either evident or hidden. I wish that all that money and technical excellence would be invested to put on screen original screenplays, but those seem to be the most difficult treasures to find in Hollywood. Marketing loves clones: when something works it generates an army of clones of the same kind. It must be the Zeitgeist, here in AS also I see more derivative scripts inspired by famous movies and books, rather than original screenplays that explore new concepts.
A better campaign would have been "You've not heard of John Carter?" As I've never heard of him!!!
Too much champagne at Disney is going to their heads!
If they pull the ad-campaign in the UK and do a quick redo then it may just stand a chance -- but at the moment it's looking like Mummy vs a Spaceship.... minus Brendan frasier of course.
I see it as a glossy DVD release where the 'making of it' sells it -- and Boxing Day movie for kids whilst they chomp on left overs of christmas day big-turkey sandwhiches.
LA Times reports today that John Carter must do $700 million just to break even. The director, Andrew Stanton from Pixar is used to doing multi re-shoots, "I'm not gonna get it right the first time, I'll tell you that right now."
Disney used to release 20 or more movies a year. For 2012, only 2 live action movies are scheduled for release.
Jay Rasulo, Disney CFO explains, "The melting cube of the DVD business has caused the studio to focus its investments on potential franchise films that could be exploited by its television networks, consumer products group and theme parks."
I won't see it on the big screen as I don't like 3-D. Saw " A Separation" last week-end, much better than "The Artist."