Why Amazon's New Development Paradigm Is Critical To Emerging Writers

Friends

There has been A LOT of useful dialogue about Amazon Studios, their development agreement, the collaborative development process and the financial impact thereof on writers. However, there has been surprisingly little conversation about the state of the spec market today and what chance a new writer really has on breaking through on their own. 

Consider these stats - taken from 2009 DEADLINE / SCOGGINS REPORT RECAP:

http://www.deadline.com/2009/12/unofficial-2009-spec-market-scorecard/

• 436 spec scripts came out in 2009, of which 72 sold (17%).

• 373 specs went out wide in 2009, of which 19 sold (5%). Of those 19, only 3 sold after April 30th, out of 178 attempts during the period (1.7%).

• As for spec sals by genre, comedies led with 32% of sales, thrillers 29%, action adventures 21%, while dramas and sci-fi/fantasies tied with 10%.

• Universal and Warner Bros bought the most specs among the major buyers (6 each). But Warner Bros bought only 1 spec script in the second half of the year. Paramount & Sony tied with 5 each not counting ony's Screen Gems which bought another 3. DreamWorks had 4. 20th Century Fox had 3, but adding all its three banners, Fox bought 6 specs. Lionsgate purchased 3. New Line didn’t buy any specs in 2009.

• Relativity and Intrepid bought the most specs among the other buyers (3 each).

• In the spec market scrum among agencies, CAA made 14 spec script sales out of 34 attempts, or 41%), followed by UTA's 10 sales out of 30 attempts, or 33%, and ICM's 10 sales out of 33 attempts, or 30%. WME didn’t form until May 2009, but when you take the numbers for all three of its component companies -- Endeavor, William Morris, and WME -- the combined agency would have been a dominant #1 in total scripts sold, with 18 sales out of 47 attempts, or 38%)

• Benderspink among management companies had the most spec sales (5 sales out of 11 attempts, or 45%). Kaplan/Perrone had 4 sales out of 12 attempts, or 33%. Principato-Young made 3 sales out of 8 attempts, or 38%, while Circle Of Confusion did 3 sales out of 15 attempts, or 20%.

What does all this mean? Well, to boil it down, if you are:

- An established writer
- Have a manager / agent from a major firm
- Wrote a spec
- And released it wide

By the end of 2009, you had a 17% chance of sale. 

Now, lets look at how many screenplays last year were written, but don't meet the criteria I laid out above. In total, the WGA registers approximately 43,000 screenplays (full-length, 70,000 scripts all together) each year. If only 436 go to spec, what happens to the rest? 

Lets be generous and estimate that Hollywood studios account for another 500 in-house projects per year. That still leaves 42,000 projects, each year, that are looking for homes. And that's the dilemma for new writers. 

If you're a new writer, likely your script is among that 43,000 (or the tens of thousands more non-registered scripts, we're not counting in this exercise).  You're odds of sale about 1 in 1000 or less that 1/5 of 1%. Or said differently, there is better than a 99.8% chance you won't sell your script. 

If you've ever wondered why it's so hard to get an agent or manager interested in representing you - that's the reason. They're business people and they know that the investment they make in trying to "break" a new writer is a very risky one that likely won't pay off in any reasonable amount of time. 

Unfortunately, by all indications, the 2010 spec market is only getting worse. There just isn't the demand for new, original material that there once was. In fact, several studios, such as Disney and Warner Brothers, have announced publicly that their focus was shifting away from original spec screenplays and back towards developing existing projects or properties (there are a lot of amusement park rides and comic books that need scripts, afterall). 

While it has always been hard for new writers to break into Hollywood, this is arguable the most challenging it has ever been and the market and underlying buying model of major studios is not likely to change of it's own accord. This brings me to Amazon and why it is so important.

First, Amazon is investing more in building a community for emerging writers than any other for profit corporation in the entertainment space today. At a time when all the major studios have done away with their internship and fellowship programs, Amazon is going to award 24 $20,000 monthly prizes over the next 12 months. They're also going to award 1 $100,000 prize and potentially purchase your work for $200,000. Assuming they get 2000 projects up and make those awards to different projects over the course of the year, you have a 1 in 76 chance of winning. Quite an improvement over the open market. 

Second, Amazon Studios gives new writers an opportunity to do something constructive with their material rather than letting it languish in the decaying spec market. We can come here, hone our craft and benefit from the experience of others. The Amazon development agreement ensures a level of open collaboration and cooperation that no other community can. The financial and legal issues related to collaboration are normalized across the entire community. This creates a landmark opportunity to interact with other filmmakers and see our work (or portions thereof) produced. I experienced this first hand when filmmaker I hadn't even met created a test trailer for my script VILLAIN and posted it 4 days after I joined the community.  It was amazing and couldn't happen anywhere else but here.  

Third, is Amazon itself. As emerging artists, we have the opportunity to partner with a company that has reinvented retailing and publishing and in doing so has had spectacular success in making room for emerging talent. Before Amazon, the long tail did not exist in media. Limited shelf space and a costly production and distribution apparatus meant that if you weren't in the Top 10 or Top 100, you were out. Amazon changed all that. Now there is room for everyone - for every kind of taste and talent. Could you imagine if that were true for films? What that would mean for writers and filmmakers like us? It's both daunting and inspiring just how big an opportunity this might be.  

To my critics (and I know they'll be many) who believe that the Amazon development agreement, option agreement, collaborative development methodology and vision for this studio is completely wrong, I say to you that the numbers don't lie. You cannot decry this a "bad deal" for writers without demonstrating where in the marketplace today they will find a better one. You cannot tell us that our specs are being undervalued when you cannot point to a buyer who will to pay more. As a writer I want to get paid to write and give my work the best possible chance of being produced. The critics of this venture, while certainly passionate and vocal, have not yet offered up a viable plan to deliver more exposure or income for me than Amazon. What they have done is make an impassioned plea to protect the status quo - which does everything BUT help the emerging writer. 

On a statistical basis, if you are a first-time writer, trying to take your script to spec is near impossible. This is the reality we face in 2010. So, I'd ask that you join my in elevating the debate. Lets not make this about Amazon. Lets make it about the numbers, the facts and where writers should go, if not Amazon, to realize their vision. And in doing that, I think you will begin to realize what an extraordinary opportunity we have before us today.

Thanks for reading this and taking part in our vibrant community.

--Richard

This is an opportunity for anyone. Amateur or 20 years in the business.

Fair enough, Dude.

Let's get Donny and go bowling. ;-)

Damn, those are some bleak numbers. For the last four years, I've tried EVERYTHING getting my spec scripts sold and haven't had any luck. I cringe thinking about how much cash I've thrown down the drain.

I still have some issues with parts of the contract (and I will never think allowing strangers to rewrite work is a good idea) but overall this is a good opportunity for people like me.

Thank you for posting this. Finally some research on the topic. Perhaps this will end the uneducated bashing.

I like your research numbers but I definitely don't think this is some "landmark" opportunity as you suggest. You overlook many factors. So the spec market stinks, which everyone knows. So the number of scripts outweighs the demand. This stuff has always been true. You're not pointing out anything new or the problems with their model in terms of actually getting a movie made. What makes you think Amazon has a better chance of making a movie than any other producer in Hollywood, since they have no budget to produce a movie, have not committed one dime to a slate of productions, and only have a "first look" deal with a studio that also has no committment to make an Amazon movie. Who doesn't have a first look deal in Hollywood? I could respect them and see them as more legitimate if they put down the bucks to finance a chosen movie, at least one. Then they'd have something real, and we'd know we're talking to a studio not a wannabe producer. My comments may seem harsh, but as other writers have pointed out there's no short-cut to success and writers have better ways to break in than this one, like maybe getting a camera and producing your own movie.

Thanks Richard,

I've been in this game for more years than I care to mention. I am a published author and have worked as a screenwriter, producer, and creative executive with several projects in development. Although I have not yet submitted any of my own scripts to Amazon Studios, I do see the opportunity here and may eventually do so.

I appreciate your cogent discussions of the issues at hand and hope that others will keep an open mind. In my humble opinion, Amazon Studios is a daring experiment that may very well be an industry game changer.

Best,

Robert Hammond

Richard,

Agree with you and have been getting bashed on DoneDealPro, MovieBytes, and the comments section of August/Mazin's blogs for saying the same thing.

Opprotunities for new writers are slim. Pros are struggling. Nearly three million in prizes going out to struggling writers and filmmakers is a great thing. That's MFA tuition money. Rent. Buy someone six more months to write.

From the winners there'll likely be several writers moving on to receiving produced film credits. New careers started. Really exciting.

Instead of embracing the opportunity, many have chosen to bash the contest and not enter. Well, good luck to them.

Most specs are used as calling cards to get the writer assignment work. That can happen here as well. Producer checks out a winning script and writer picks up an assignment.

The game is changing. Amazon could easily form a net channel and provide streaming original programming. Content creators here early have an opportunity to be part of that.

Stephen

Richard,
Thank you so very much for posting that. I was working with an agent in mid 2008 to sell some scripts. She quite the biz in 2009 simply because none of the spec scripts she was representing where selling. The spec script market simply evaporated right when the economist said we where in a recession. There has been no recovery since.

Screenwriters who turn to indie filmmakers to create their films are not finding any gold their either. having been involved with several indie films budgeted between 30 to 90K, the sales of the films are way below projection. No film I have worked on has yet recovered its initial funding and a lot of future films have been scrapped because of the poor sales.

I knew what Amazon is doing is a good deal and I totally agree with their direction. They have vision and are forerunners of what is to come in film and TV.

Thanks again for posting the facts.
Mark

@ Michael.

I've read a number of your posts and respect that you seems genuinely concerned about the the welfare of writers in general. Some more food for thought, though. Out of all the companies in Hollywood with a first-look deal at a major studio, how many do you think have their own development funds and will pay out 2 million or more for development of original material to writers this year? 5... 10... Maybe 20 altogether? The point is, I think you'd agree, that number is exceedingly small. Now ask yourself how many of those companies will accept unsolicited material from a new writer? The number is 0. So while everything you say is true and Amazon may not end up actually getting your movie produced and distributed, I can say with actual certainty that they will be the only production company with a first look deal at a major studio that is investing and developing material from emerging writers, at scale. Amazon is investing me when no one else is - so I'm willing to meet them half way and I'd encourage every other emerging / improvised writer to do the same.

When I look at my own situation, I live in DC and have ZERO Hollywood connections. What are the chances that I'll get picked up by ICM or CAA? Not EVEN a snowball's chance in hell. I'm not looking for a short cut as some suggest the participants here are. I'm looking to take advantage of every opportunity that avails itself to me, particularly given that I live on the other side of the country and cannot schmooze with Hollywood insiders...or outsiders for that matter.

There is no shame in taking advantage of an opportunity offered. No shame at all. If I decide the terms offered to are acceptable to ME, then I'll have to answer to myself for better or for worse--and that's the only person I'll answer to. I won't owe any apologies to anyone, especially some
naysayer(s) passing judgment from somewhere west of West Cucamonga who doesn't know me from a can of paint. And if my movie gets optioned for $200k and someone says, "Yeah, but you were just a desperate writer who took a short cut and got lucky!" I'll say, "Yep!" and then I'll pull myself from the muck, dust my shoulders off, and cry heaving sobs all the way to the bank.

Thanks for this post, Richard!!

Most of the pros will say, "Move to Los Angeles." If you aren't there, you are a 'hobbyist' and not serious about your writing. That's the attitude. I know writers who have Los Angeles area code phones. I know writers whose AGENT don't know they live outside Los Angeles -- they use a friend's address and make up excuses to cover.

If you are outside that circle (meeting people in the business every day), working as a flunkie reader at a major agency or prod co, etc. then you're chances are slim to none. Contests even discriminate against people outside Los Angeles (as one judge was roundly criticized for admitting).

So you're in Los Angeles working, struggling to meet the bills and ... no time to write. Many writers go out there and come back. Thousands every day.

I've seen scripts posted here by former WGA-signatory agents, guys with ten produced films... What is this telling you? The spec market is dead/next to dead.

A spec is used these days to generate reads that lead to assignments. A dozen writers or more are brought in to give their pitch on how they'd do SLINKY: THE MOVIE. Then one chosen. If that's a new writer, chances are they just want a cheap first draft. Then they hire a top pro to do the rewrite.

Amazon presents a unique end run on that system. No address requirements or personal contacts. Here's a script that if you make for a small amount of money will make a big amount of money (on whatever scale they want). That's a foot in the door.

That writer may go on to have a produced credit. Every other screenplay they have is in play for a sale. They are in play for assignments. They broke in. Nobody wants your cherry in this business. They want to point and say, "Well, he did this and this..." Then they can blame any failure (since nobody has much of an idea of what will hit) on the track record.

If you only have 1 or 2 scripts that you still have agents or producers reading... well, okay. Give that a shot. First, go write another dozen scripts. You should have a body of work to shop. Second, odds are a great spec will just be a calling card script. This site will eventually serve that purpose as well -- producers coming here looking for talent.

What are some of you people drinking. I want some of that. Really, this thing was just announced two weeks ago and already it is a "landmark" venture, by a company that has no reputation in the film business, has never produced a movie, and can't even write a credible options contract. I need some the happy juice you people are on. You sound like a cheer-leading group for the local high school football team. If you're not on happy juice, you're just shills for Amazon. To believe you all, all the other comments on the net by experienced writers and writer's groups have to be wrong.
Really!

Lets put this in simple plain English.

If you don't like Amazon's rules, they are putting up millions of dollars, don't enter. Don't even think about it. Ignore them. If Amazon fails miserably, you were right all along...good for you.

Anytime another door is open for writers and filmmakers, that's another opportunity to get noticed. And that's a great thing. Forget about winning...I think all of us on here would scream with excitement if we get our work noticed. And if that leads to future work...how can you look down on that?

@Michael

Amazon is one the largest media companies in the world. They have a market cap that is larger than Time Warner. Roy Price, the executive in charge of AmazonStudios, is a seasoned entertainment executive from Disney, who also happens to be an attorney. Why are they not credible? By your rationale, we would have ignored Sony and GE when they entered the entertainment business - and done so at our own peril.

I know you've spent a lot of time providing legal advice and analysis on the Amazon contract. You've been berating Amazon and the "shills" who support this project, but I haven't heard anything from you that sounds even remotely like a better alternative. All I hear is Amazon bad. Status quo good. Do what John August says. If anyone is cheer-leading, it's you - only for the wrong team.

Every credible industry source (Variety, Deadline, HWR) tells us that our chances of spec success are getting worse and worse every year for emerging writers. Rather than comparing this to the killer agreement that Craig Mazin's agent scored on his last Scary Movie sequel - lets compare it to what most writers on this site will experience as an alternative - NOTHING. I'm no contracts lawyer, but isn't a chance at success better than none at all?

Honestly, I don't mean to ratchet up the rhetoric and I know you're trying to give good counsel to other writers on the site. But what's more likely: that Amazon will follow through on the public statements they've made here and give 27 or so struggling filmmakers some cash and chance to promote their work OR that this is some insidious scheme to steal the screenplays of struggling writers? I just don't buy it. There are so many easier and cleaner ways for Amazon to enter the entertainment business and preserve the customer friendly brand they've pioneered.

The critics remind me of the 1995 NEWSWEEK article writer who said there was no future in online retailing. Seriously. Sure there were many that said epublishing would never work. "People want to turn pages on an actual book." Now... this won't work. Well, give it time.

Worst case it's $2,700,000 going out to writers and filmmakers to pay college tuition or loans or rent. Cameras. Fund new films. That's a lot of money.

If you don't like the contest, don't enter it. There are hundreds of contests out there.

That's it, Stephen. I'm advocating with all of you to put $2m+ in the hands of new filmmakers. The

Do you happen to know what these filmmakers have in common:

James Cameron
Francis Ford Coppola
Martin Scorsese
Ron Howard
Robert Towne
Curtis Hanson
Peter Bogdanovich

Besides being Academy Award winners, they were all given an alternative path into filmmaking. In the 1970s, much like today, the film business was in transition and studio jobs were few and far between. Roger Corman did what the studios couldn't - he pioneered a business model that allowed him to embrace emerging talent. It meant less money and none of the creature comforts of the studio system, but that was offset by more creative freedom and collaboration. Nobody got rich and some might have called it a bad deal or berated Corman's alternative model, but the fact remains he gave a start to an entire generation of Hollywood creative leaders.

Will Amazon do the same for our generation? Is the next James Cameron or Martin Scorsese thinking about posting their project tonight? Only time will tell, but nothing ventured, nothing gained...

Amazon Studios is definitely not for everybody. I would say that if you think you have a good chance in submitting to Hollywood agents, pitch festivals, management companies, or other screenplay sites such as Trigger Street, Zoetrope, InkTip, ScriptPimp, Script Shark, etc., then I say go for it.

This is something new. Something dangerous. Risky. For those who have read and understood the terms of the Development Agreement and are willing to take a chance, then I say more power to you.

What's the best thing that could happen?

Richard,

I cited Roger Corman in a debate on DoneDealPro regarding Amazon. And that was ... Roger Corman. This is a multi-multi-billion dollar company with a first look Warner Brothers deal.

The WGA minimum for feature is just under $100,000 for a mid budget. Goes down to $50,000 for a $1.2 million project. So the $20,000 PLUS $200,000 money here is better than what you'd expect to get selling your first feature script. Plus, Amazon wants success stories to attract more talent and keep things going forward. The winners, along with being talented writers, are really ambassadors of the contest. In a few years, especially after press coverage that'll follow a completed film from this new model, this could be THE destination for every film student, new writer out there.

Get a film made -- some way some how -- that gets attention. Kevin Smith, Robert Rodriguez, etc. Costs of production are going down. Money from the prize here or just funding the eventual film.

Also be great if Amazon did 'television' programming: A series distributed solely online. Much less expensive than doing a film. Half hour or hour. This is a Golden Age of writing in television. Why? Writer/producers run the show.

I've got a large number of projects. I shop directly to producers and filmmakers. At this point, my goal is to get produced feature credits. One thing leads to the next...

"Go out on a limb... that's where the fruit is." - Jimmy Carter

I am going to leave this forum, but before doing so, I would like to add a final comment. This forum has exposed several problems or negatives with the Amazon Studios model. For those who support Amazon Studios, rather than defending Amazon, it would be productive to argue for changes that would make the model better and win the support of writers. This whole concept depends on attracting good scripts. The secret to real succes is attracting more serious, talented writers, good scripts. Several people have commented that they would only submit their second-best script, one that needs work, one they consider "lame," etc. Amazon Studios has a first draft business model, and like a writer, they need to improve it with intelligent changes, inteligent development. A business or artist who refuses to make changes for the better can't reach the next level. I can't support their current approach, but I could if they: a) dropped the need for an exclusive option just to participate, b) not allow other writers to revise or make any changes to a script without the author's consent, and participation, c) not provide any compensation to anyone other than the original author, and d) rather than offering contest money, save the money and use it to finance at least one movie, maybe even a valid option to produce with compensation. The whole process would be more appealing and probably actually result in a real movie being made. Just think how exciting this conept would be with improvement that wins over writers, all writers.

It is laughable to compare Amazon Studios to Corman. Corman made actual movies outside the studio system; AS is partnered with a major film studio while dangling some vague and far off promise to maybe some day make a movie. Big difference.

@Michael O'Connor - I'm as skeptical as the next guy, but why get a first look deal with Warner Brothers, give away $2M+ in prizes, build the website, promote it far and wide, just to NOT make a movie. There isn't any logic to that.

Could it fail? Sure. Film companies fail all the time. But sitting on the sidelines doesn't improve my odds of success.

@Michael Stram - I'm sorry to hear that, Michael. I think you're a really smart and thoughtful guy - I would have liked to seen you continue to participate even though we often don't agree.

I can tell you that AS has attracted high caliber talent. I've read about about 2 dozen scripts and read loglines for many more. There are many professional writers who have already joined Amazon Studios. We have produced writers, optioned writers, writers who have won or place highly major screenwriting competitions, including the Nichols Fellowship (with the scripts they posted). We also have many first-timers who are looking for some exposure to break through. It is kind of amazing.

But amongst that diverse field of collaborators, to think that all those writers are submitting second string work is laughable. I've seen the same scripts many of them submitted to Nichols, TriggerStreet, ScriptShark and FinalDraft showing up on this site. As we approach 1300 projects on AS, I promise you, the competition and quality of work on the site will be intense. Second-best won't be good enough.

With regard to the AS concept - I think a number of us genuinely disagree. I appreciate what you're saying, but when I add up everything your propose, it essentially recasts AS as just another screenwriting contest. And honestly, that's the last thing writers need. With regard to your specific suggestions: a) The option is needed in order to facilitate collaboration in the site and protect the investment that AS is making in supporting our work. b) This is the whole point of AS - collaboration. c) This isn't true - if you're a filmmaker who revises and produces a script on AS, you share in the prizes / compensation, should your project win. d) Why would you suggest writers NOT get rewarded for their participation.

And in all honesty, you've made a big assumption that they have no resource / ability to produce the films on this site. You and others have no basis for this claim.

AS is a virtual studio and development environment. It is the first of it's kind and will inevitably need refinement, but I would like to see refinements that reinforce the underlying the core innovations of this venture... openness, collaboration, equality... rather than undoing them in favor of the status quo.

I guess when it all comes down to it, you have to put a little bit of trust and faith in AS to pay attention to the community, follow through on their promises and effectively partner with us to move our collective ambitions forward. To me, that's a small step. To others it's a major leap of faith. Time will tell. But to all the writers who are not jumping in now - I urge everyone to come back in the spring. See how the community has progressed and be open to giving it another shot. We'll be here and the community will only improve with your participation.

Agree with Michael O'Connor that comparing amazon to Corman (in terms of actually making movies) is insulting to Corman.

@Richard Stern "why get a first look deal with Warner Brothers, give away $2M+ in prizes, build the website, promote it far and wide, just to NOT make a movie. There isn't any logic to that."

The logic is that making, advertising, and distributing a studio movie costs a whole hell of a lot more than $2M+. (I'm not even getting into the debate here of whether most studio movies, after P&A, make their money back. Suffice to say it's a risky business.) And it's not amazon making, advertising and distributing - it would be Warner Bros. So while amazon might hope to make a movie someday, the truth is making a movie really isn't up to them. It's up to Warner Bros.

And, strictly speaking, "amazon studios" doesn't fail if it doesn't make a movie. It fails if the money they spend on prizes, the website, paying script readers, etc. is not recouped. Theoretically, that money could be recouped not by making a movie, but by increased website traffic and sales of amazon merchandise. Like most screenplay contests, it has to make money in order to continue operation.

(That's not to say this isn't good exposure for screenwriters who are 1) amazing and 2) have exhausted all other entrees into the business... again, as long as you don't mind giving up your rights when you enter.)